Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.1%). Look for Jenner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jenner wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 51.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Defensive zone
Jenner 63.5%
Neutral zone
Jenner 54.1%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Jenner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Jenner
MacKinnon
Last 7: Jenner 5-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
0
Jenner
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (265)
49.7% (1,038)
+1.6%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
63.7% (157)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jenner is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Jenner shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Jenner
MacKinnon
Home
52.7% (165)
53.1% (618)
Away
50.0% (144)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Jenner
MacKinnon
P1
49.0%
49.3%
P2
45.0%
53.0%
P3
59.5%
50.7%
Final 5 min
55.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
48.5%
51.5%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:54 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |