Brady Tkachuk vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 20-6 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 97.1%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 62.6%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 75.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
6
(26 meetings)
20
6
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Last 10: Tkachuk 8-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
13
2
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
2
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
2
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
46.1% (11,255)
+2.8%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
53.2% (1,418)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
42.8% (502)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,232).
Tkachuk shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,527).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
Home
50.7% (1,435)
49.7% (6,459)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Tkachuk
MacKinnon
P1
49.4%
47.4%
P2
51.3%
46.6%
P3
49.1%
46.1%
OT
55.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 08:55 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 00:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 02:37 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 02:29 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |