Fedor Svechkov vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Svechkov wins 43.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 45.8% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 75.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 70.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Last 6: Svechkov 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (348)
49.1% (825)
-4.3%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
65.4% (130)
-32.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
34.5% (29)
+5.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Svechkov is 43.6% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Svechkov shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Home
42.4% (177)
52.6% (489)
Away
46.9% (179)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Svechkov
MacKinnon
P1
36.9%
50.3%
P2
48.6%
52.6%
P3
48.8%
49.2%
Final 5 min
44.6%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
52.0%▲
46.0%
44.7%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |