Fedor Svechkov vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Svechkov wins 40.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 43.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 75.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 75.7%
24.3%
75.7%
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Last 6: Svechkov 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Svechkov
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (472)
49.7% (1,029)
-8.0%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
64.3% (154)
-31.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +31.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Svechkov is 40.8% vs right-shot opponents (169).
Svechkov shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Svechkov
MacKinnon
Home
39.7% (247)
53.1% (606)
Away
44.0% (234)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Svechkov
MacKinnon
P1
36.1%
49.4%
P2
44.5%
52.8%
P3
44.1%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
28.0%▼
38.5%
41.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |