Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 75.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 69.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 77.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Tavares
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
49.7% (1,029)
+8.0%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
64.3% (154)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
34.4% (32)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
57.4% (636)
53.1% (606)
Away
57.1% (587)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
57.1%
49.4%
P2
57.0%
52.8%
P3
57.6%
50.8%
OT
57.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |