Mikael Granlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 48.9% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 63.7%
Defensive zone
Granlund 66.1%
Neutral zone
Granlund 51.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Granlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Granlund
MacKinnon
Last 9: Granlund 2-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Granlund
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Granlund
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Granlund
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (476)
49.7% (1,029)
-0.8%
Power Play
57.9% (107)
64.3% (154)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
31.1% (61)
34.4% (32)
-3.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Granlund is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Granlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Granlund
MacKinnon
Home
53.3% (255)
53.1% (606)
Away
45.8% (389)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Granlund
MacKinnon
P1
52.0%
49.4%
P2
48.6%
52.8%
P3
45.9%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:05 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |