Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 66.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Marner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Marner
MacKinnon
Last 5: Marner 3-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Marner
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
49.7% (1,038)
-8.9%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
63.7% (157)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marner is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (86).
Marner shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Marner
MacKinnon
Home
36.0% (186)
53.1% (618)
Away
45.6% (147)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Marner
MacKinnon
P1
40.7%
49.3%
P2
41.0%
53.0%
P3
38.6%
50.7%
Final 5 min
41.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |