Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Dowd 48.6% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
MacKinnon
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
MacKinnon
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
51.0% (671)
-1.3%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
0.0% (2)
+63.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
41.5% (224)
-7.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +63.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dowd
Home
53.1% (618)
48.2% (471)
Away
49.1% (609)
48.8% (426)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dowd
P1
49.3%
48.3%
P2
53.0%
46.8%
P3
50.7%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |