Nathan MacKinnon vs Oskar Sundqvist
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Sundqvist shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Sundqvist 47.6% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.0%
Defensive zone
Sundqvist 65.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sundqvist
0
1
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
46.8% (301)
+2.9%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
80.0% (10)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
43.5% (85)
-9.1%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sundqvist is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
Home
53.1% (618)
46.0% (189)
Away
49.1% (609)
47.8% (207)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sundqvist
P1
49.3%
44.7%
P2
53.0%
47.6%
P3
50.7%
48.6%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |