Nathan MacKinnon vs Pierre-Luc Dubois
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Dubois 48.9% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Dubois leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.0%
Defensive zone
Dubois 60.3%
Neutral zone
Dubois 51.8%
Result
Pierre-Luc Dubois favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
MacKinnon
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
MacKinnon
Dubois
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Dubois
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
1
2
MacKinnon
Dubois
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Dubois
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
44.8% (259)
+4.9%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
70.6% (34)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
75.0% (8)
-40.6%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dubois is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dubois
Home
53.1% (618)
46.6% (163)
Away
49.1% (609)
50.7% (138)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dubois
P1
49.3%
44.0%
P2
53.0%
51.5%
P3
50.7%
49.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Dubois
40.0%▼
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:25 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 07:27 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |