Nathan MacKinnon vs Quinton Byfield
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Byfield 42.7% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 88.4%
Defensive zone
Byfield 54.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
MacKinnon
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
MacKinnon
Byfield
Last 8: MacKinnon 5-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Byfield
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Byfield
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
3
MacKinnon
Byfield
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
43.5% (570)
+5.6%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
48.1% (52)
+17.3%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
31.9% (135)
+2.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Byfield is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Byfield
Home
52.6% (489)
42.7% (363)
Away
49.1% (495)
40.9% (394)
By Period
MacKinnon
Byfield
P1
50.3%
40.6%
P2
52.6%
39.5%
P3
49.2%
44.9%
OT
62.5%
41.7%
Final 5 min
55.6%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Byfield
56.0%▲
47.5%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:42 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |