Nathan MacKinnon vs Rickard Rakell
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Rakell 41.0% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rakell 51.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.9%
Neutral zone
Rakell 51.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
MacKinnon
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Rakell
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Rakell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
MacKinnon
Rakell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Rakell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
35.7% (129)
+14.0%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
43.8% (32)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
0.0% (7)
+34.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (339).
MacKinnon shoots right. Rakell is 31.0% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Rakell
Home
53.1% (606)
41.5% (82)
Away
49.1% (609)
30.2% (86)
By Period
MacKinnon
Rakell
P1
49.4%
35.1%
P2
52.8%
37.5%
P3
50.8%
32.6%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Rakell
42.0%▲
35.5%
35.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |