Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.1%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 87.2%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 65.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
52.6% (464)
-2.9%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
100.0% (1)
-36.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
46.5% (155)
-12.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
53.1% (618)
55.9% (322)
Away
49.1% (609)
46.0% (298)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
49.3%
55.9%
P2
53.0%
46.7%
P3
50.7%
50.7%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |