Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.3%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Pinto 51.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.9%
Defensive zone
Pinto 85.2%
Neutral zone
Pinto 57.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
MacKinnon
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
MacKinnon
Pinto
Last 8: MacKinnon 7-1 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Pinto
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
0
MacKinnon
Pinto
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
50.5% (556)
-0.8%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
68.0% (25)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
51.1% (94)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Pinto has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Pinto is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Pinto
Home
53.1% (618)
50.0% (310)
Away
49.1% (609)
52.3% (365)
By Period
MacKinnon
Pinto
P1
49.3%
51.8%
P2
53.0%
49.8%
P3
50.7%
53.1%
OT
66.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Pinto
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 14:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |