Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Seguin 52.5% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.3%
Defensive zone
Seguin 75.6%
Neutral zone
Seguin 52.7%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
MacKinnon
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
53.2% (201)
-3.5%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
60.0% (25)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.4% (9)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Seguin is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Seguin
Home
53.1% (618)
56.3% (126)
Away
49.1% (609)
50.5% (109)
By Period
MacKinnon
Seguin
P1
49.3%
44.3%
P2
53.0%
52.1%
P3
50.7%
62.5%
OT
66.7%
80.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |