Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Jost 44.8% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 63.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
39.5% (86)
+10.2%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
0.0% (1)
+63.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
42.9% (7)
-8.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +63.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
53.1% (618)
38.9% (54)
Away
49.1% (609)
40.0% (40)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
49.3%
42.4%
P2
53.0%
37.8%
P3
50.7%
37.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
36.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
39.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |