Nathan MacKinnon vs Tyson Kozak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tyson Kozak holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Kozak 48.8% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.8%
Defensive zone
Kozak 73.9%
Neutral zone
Kozak 53.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
MacKinnon
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Kozak
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Kozak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
MacKinnon
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
48.3% (431)
-2.2%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
62.5% (8)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
48.9% (45)
-6.1%
On power play, Kozak has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kozak is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kozak
Home
49.7% (6,471)
47.6% (229)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
49.4% (255)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kozak
P1
47.4%
54.4%
P2
46.6%
45.7%
P3
46.1%
45.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |