Nathan MacKinnon vs William Karlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 56.8%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 89.3%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 66.2%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
58.5% (135)
-8.8%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
80.0% (5)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.4% (18)
-10.0%
On power play, Karlsson has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Karlsson is 71.1% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Home
53.1% (618)
63.7% (91)
Away
49.1% (609)
49.3% (67)
By Period
MacKinnon
Karlsson
P1
49.3%
54.4%
P2
53.0%
66.7%
P3
50.7%
51.9%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |