Nathan MacKinnon vs Yanni Gourde

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Yanni Gourde holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 28 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) MacKinnon 46.8% vs Gourde 48.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor MacKinnon leads 40-29 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone MacKinnon 54.2%
Defensive zone Gourde 66.2%
Neutral zone Gourde 62.5%
Result Yanni Gourde favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
MacKinnon Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
40 - 29 (69 meetings)
40
29
MacKinnon Gourde
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Gourde

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
12
9
MacKinnon Gourde
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
11
9
MacKinnon Gourde
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
17
11
MacKinnon Gourde
28 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
48.4% (4,987)
-2.3%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
57.4% (376)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
40.0% (555)
+2.8%
On power play, Gourde has a +4.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,950).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
49.7% (6,471)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
47.4%
49.8%
P2
46.6%
47.5%
P3
46.1%
47.5%
OT
48.4%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.0%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%
50.5%
46.8%
Gourde
48.0%
46.0%
48.2%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 6, 2026 3 15:07 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 3 00:00 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 2 16:47 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 2 09:31 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 2 03:22 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 2 00:11 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 2 00:00 Neutral Yanni Gourde
Jan 6, 2026 1 19:48 Neutral Yanni Gourde
Jan 6, 2026 1 10:58 Offensive Yanni Gourde
Jan 6, 2026 1 06:56 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 1 03:26 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 6, 2026 1 00:00 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 4, 2025 3 18:31 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 4, 2025 1 16:18 Defensive Yanni Gourde
Nov 4, 2025 1 16:11 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 4, 2025 1 13:38 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 4, 2025 1 13:34 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 4, 2025 1 03:55 Offensive Yanni Gourde
Dec 22, 2024 1 12:08 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 5, 2024 1 12:58 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon