Nathan MacKinnon vs Yanni Gourde
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 28 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Gourde 48.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 40-29 in 69 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 66.2%
Neutral zone
Gourde 62.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
29
(69 meetings)
40
29
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
12
9
MacKinnon
Gourde
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
11
9
MacKinnon
Gourde
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
17
11
MacKinnon
Gourde
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
48.4% (4,987)
-2.3%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
57.4% (376)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
40.0% (555)
+2.8%
On power play, Gourde has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,950).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
49.7% (6,471)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
47.4%
49.8%
P2
46.6%
47.5%
P3
46.1%
47.5%
OT
48.4%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |