Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Smith 50.6% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 78.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 55.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
MacKinnon
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
MacKinnon
Smith
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
4
MacKinnon
Smith
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
6
MacKinnon
Smith
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
MacKinnon
Smith
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
51.6% (5,265)
-5.5%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
51.2% (342)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
45.3% (985)
-2.5%
On even strength, Smith has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Smith
Home
49.7% (6,471)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
MacKinnon
Smith
P1
47.4%
49.9%
P2
46.6%
50.0%
P3
46.1%
51.9%
OT
48.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 07:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |