Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 46.9% vs Dowd 48.6% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 87.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.9%
Neutral zone
Kadri 54.9%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Kadri
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kadri
Dowd
Last 6: Kadri 2-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Kadri
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (866)
51.0% (671)
-4.5%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
0.0% (2)
+48.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
41.5% (224)
-3.0%
On power play, Kadri has a +48.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kadri is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Kadri shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Kadri
Dowd
Home
45.8% (513)
48.2% (471)
Away
47.6% (452)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Kadri
Dowd
P1
52.4%
48.3%
P2
48.5%
46.8%
P3
39.7%
51.0%
OT
44.4%
30.0%
Final 5 min
46.6%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
46.6%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |