Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Kadri wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 46.9% vs Zacha 51.8% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 76.0%
Defensive zone
Zacha 60.6%
Neutral zone
Kadri 57.8%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Kadri
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kadri
Zacha
Last 5: Kadri 2-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
0
Kadri
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Kadri
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (866)
53.0% (700)
-6.5%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
54.1% (109)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
39.2% (74)
-0.7%
On even strength, Zacha has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Kadri is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Kadri shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Kadri
Zacha
Home
45.8% (513)
51.6% (438)
Away
47.6% (452)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Kadri
Zacha
P1
52.4%
57.0%
P2
48.5%
48.9%
P3
39.7%
50.5%
OT
44.4%
42.1%
Final 5 min
46.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
46.6%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 29, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |