Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.5%). Look for Backstrom on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Backstrom 50.5% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Backstrom leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backstrom 93.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Dowd
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dowd
Backstrom
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Backstrom
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
2
Dowd
Backstrom
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
3
Dowd
Backstrom
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
50.4% (11,581)
+1.9%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
52.3% (1,895)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
47.0% (889)
-2.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Backstrom is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (5,430).
Home / Away
Dowd
Backstrom
Home
51.9% (3,917)
52.6% (7,223)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
48.4% (7,173)
By Period
Dowd
Backstrom
P1
51.5%
50.1%
P2
50.4%
49.7%
P3
50.3%
51.6%
OT
45.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 04:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2017 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 2 | 02:54 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 1 | 02:17 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Feb 5, 2017 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Feb 5, 2017 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |