Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 79.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Dowd
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Dowd
Cates
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Dowd
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
45.5% (756)
+5.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
42.1% (114)
-42.1%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
44.7% (47)
-3.2%
On power play, Cates has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Dowd
Cates
Home
48.2% (471)
46.2% (468)
Away
48.8% (426)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Dowd
Cates
P1
48.3%
46.0%
P2
46.8%
47.5%
P3
51.0%
42.1%
OT
30.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
51.0%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |