Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Wright 41.4% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 67.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 73.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Dowd
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
39.7% (461)
+11.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
41.0% (61)
-41.0%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
0.0% (1)
+41.5%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +41.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Wright is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Dowd
Wright
Home
48.2% (471)
39.5% (286)
Away
48.8% (426)
40.1% (237)
By Period
Dowd
Wright
P1
48.3%
40.2%
P2
46.8%
36.7%
P3
51.0%
42.9%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |