Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Dowd
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowd
Hertl
Last 5: Dowd 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Dowd
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
58.7% (858)
-7.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.8% (285)
-55.8%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
62.9% (35)
-21.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Dowd
Hertl
Home
48.2% (471)
60.1% (599)
Away
48.8% (426)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Dowd
Hertl
P1
48.3%
52.4%
P2
46.8%
63.9%
P3
51.0%
58.5%
OT
30.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |