Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Jost 44.8% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 82.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.2%
Neutral zone
Jost 57.8%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Dowd
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Dowd
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Dowd
Jost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Dowd
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
39.5% (86)
+11.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
0.0% (1)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
42.9% (7)
-1.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Jost is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jost
Home
48.2% (471)
38.9% (54)
Away
48.8% (426)
40.0% (40)
By Period
Dowd
Jost
P1
48.3%
42.4%
P2
46.8%
37.8%
P3
51.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
51.0%
36.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
39.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |