Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 76.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 57.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 82.1%
17.9%
82.1%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (292)
58.7% (858)
-9.0%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
55.8% (285)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
62.9% (35)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
48.7% (193)
60.1% (599)
Away
50.4% (141)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
41.5%
52.4%
P2
57.3%
63.9%
P3
50.0%
58.5%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |