Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.6%). Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Kozak 48.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 66.5%
Defensive zone
Kozak 66.0%
Neutral zone
Kozak 51.5%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Bjugstad
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Bjugstad
Kozak
Last 6: Bjugstad 4-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
2
Bjugstad
Kozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,646)
48.3% (431)
+0.3%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
62.5% (8)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
48.9% (45)
-4.6%
On power play, Kozak has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Bjugstad shoots right. Kozak is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Kozak
Home
49.8% (4,023)
47.6% (229)
Away
48.1% (4,066)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Bjugstad
Kozak
P1
48.9%
54.4%
P2
49.1%
45.7%
P3
48.5%
45.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:42 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |