Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Gourde 46.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 55.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 54.9%
Neutral zone
Gourde 52.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Bjugstad
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Gourde
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Bjugstad
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (292)
47.2% (687)
+2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
45.0% (20)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
33.0% (88)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Bjugstad shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Gourde
Home
48.7% (193)
44.4% (356)
Away
50.4% (141)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Bjugstad
Gourde
P1
41.5%
42.2%
P2
57.3%
50.0%
P3
50.0%
44.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 02:53 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |