Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 52.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 63.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.4%
21.6%
78.4%
Foligno
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Foligno
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (291)
55.7% (856)
-6.2%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
57.5% (233)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
50.0% (144)
-2.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Foligno shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Foligno
O'Reilly
Home
48.9% (178)
55.5% (616)
Away
50.7% (209)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Foligno
O'Reilly
P1
43.0%
58.1%
P2
55.9%
54.9%
P3
50.0%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |