Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.9%). Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Foligno wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Johnston 49.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 64.4%
Defensive zone
Johnston 67.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 55.7%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Foligno
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Foligno
Johnston
Last 10: Foligno 4-6 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
6
Foligno
Johnston
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
0
Foligno
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Foligno
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,840)
49.1% (2,232)
-0.8%
Power Play
52.3% (731)
52.5% (179)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (457)
44.7% (237)
-0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Foligno is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,518).
Foligno shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Foligno
Johnston
Home
49.9% (2,013)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
47.2% (2,017)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Foligno
Johnston
P1
47.8%
50.0%
P2
50.5%
48.1%
P3
48.2%
48.6%
OT
29.7%
51.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:38 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 05:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |