Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.9% vs Gourde 46.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 50.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 50.1%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.7%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Foligno
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Foligno
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (291)
47.2% (687)
+2.3%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
45.0% (20)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
33.0% (88)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Foligno shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Foligno
Gourde
Home
48.9% (178)
44.4% (356)
Away
50.7% (209)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Foligno
Gourde
P1
43.0%
42.2%
P2
55.9%
50.0%
P3
50.0%
44.5%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:41 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |