Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 90.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 65.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Backlund
Paul
Last 5: Backlund 4-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Backlund
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (930)
53.7% (354)
-3.6%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
59.0% (61)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (293)
52.9% (34)
-5.1%
On power play, Paul has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (926).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
48.1% (636)
55.1% (216)
Away
51.1% (653)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
45.2%
54.9%
P2
54.2%
54.5%
P3
48.8%
54.3%
OT
55.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
46.0%▼
48.5%
49.7%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |