Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Lorentz 48.5% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 60.4%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 52.8%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 53.7%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Paul
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Paul
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Paul
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
48.9% (1,125)
+3.7%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
50.0% (26)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
41.8% (91)
+5.1%
On power play, Paul has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
52.8% (2,445)
50.6% (609)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
53.8%
53.0%
P2
51.0%
46.7%
P3
52.2%
46.2%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |