Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 53.5%). Paul wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.9% vs Lorentz 51.5% (+0.2%)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 51.5%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 55.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Paul
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (277)
56.7% (60)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.7% (46)
0.0% (1)
+58.7%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
40.0% (10)
+11.7%
On power play, Paul has a +58.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (43).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
52.9% (155)
55.6% (54)
Away
54.3% (197)
47.1% (17)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
55.6%
57.9%
P2
56.7%
55.2%
P3
50.8%
47.8%
Final 5 min
59.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Lorentz
58.0%▲
47.5%
53.5%