Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.6% vs Lorentz 49.5% (+5.3%)
Offensive zone
Paul 65.6%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 51.6%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 58.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Paul
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (354)
51.4% (74)
+2.3%
Power Play
59.0% (61)
50.0% (2)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
42.3% (26)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Paul shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Paul
Lorentz
Home
55.1% (216)
52.9% (68)
Away
53.6% (233)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Paul
Lorentz
P1
54.9%
58.6%
P2
54.5%
45.0%
P3
54.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
57.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
49.0%