Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 78.6%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 55.5%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 64.4%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Last 10: Schmaltz 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
1
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
55.7% (856)
-9.8%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
57.5% (233)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
50.0% (144)
-2.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
Home
44.9% (434)
55.5% (616)
Away
47.7% (405)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Schmaltz
O'Reilly
P1
41.5%
58.1%
P2
46.7%
54.9%
P3
51.1%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:39 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |