Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 57.1%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 52.2%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 55.3%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Schmaltz
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Schmaltz
Hertl
Last 5: Schmaltz 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
58.7% (858)
-12.8%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
55.8% (285)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
62.9% (35)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Hertl
Home
44.9% (434)
60.1% (599)
Away
47.7% (405)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Schmaltz
Hertl
P1
41.5%
52.4%
P2
46.7%
63.9%
P3
51.1%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |