Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 45.5%). Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 81.8%
Defensive zone
Gourde 79.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 51.6%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Schmaltz
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Schmaltz
Gourde
Last 10: Schmaltz 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
5
Schmaltz
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
47.2% (687)
-1.3%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
45.0% (20)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
33.0% (88)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Gourde
Home
44.9% (434)
44.4% (356)
Away
47.7% (405)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Schmaltz
Gourde
P1
41.5%
42.2%
P2
46.7%
50.0%
P3
51.1%
44.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 07:27 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |