Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Suzuki 49.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 34-22 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Suzuki 61.1%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 56.7%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 64.2%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
McDavid
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
22
(56 meetings)
34
22
McDavid
Suzuki
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
13
4
McDavid
Suzuki
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
12
9
McDavid
Suzuki
21 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
McDavid
Suzuki
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
49.4% (6,368)
-1.7%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
50.8% (1,355)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
44.0% (466)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Suzuki is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,968).
Home / Away
McDavid
Suzuki
Home
49.3% (4,582)
51.1% (4,031)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
47.7% (4,158)
By Period
McDavid
Suzuki
P1
46.5%
48.9%
P2
48.7%
49.1%
P3
48.3%
50.3%
OT
42.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 03:48 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 02:37 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |