Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Suzuki wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suzuki 50.6% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 60.2%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 64.3%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 61.8%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Suzuki
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Suzuki
Stamkos
Last 9: Suzuki 3-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Suzuki
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Suzuki
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Suzuki
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suzuki
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (945)
57.1% (368)
-5.8%
Power Play
50.7% (282)
55.2% (96)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (67)
50.0% (10)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Suzuki is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Suzuki shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Suzuki
Stamkos
Home
51.0% (637)
53.9% (230)
Away
50.2% (657)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Suzuki
Stamkos
P1
53.1%
56.7%
P2
47.4%
54.1%
P3
51.3%
59.2%
OT
48.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 16, 2025 | OT | 04:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 16, 2025 | OT | 01:14 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:25 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |