Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.8% vs 56.5%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hischier wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hischier 55.4% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 61.8%
Defensive zone
Hischier 62.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Hischier
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Hischier
Stamkos
Last 10: Hischier 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Hischier
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
3
2
Hischier
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Hischier
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hischier
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (1,172)
57.1% (368)
-1.6%
Power Play
64.5% (265)
55.2% (96)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (164)
50.0% (10)
-6.1%
On power play, Hischier has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hischier is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (570).
Hischier shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Hischier
Stamkos
Home
56.8% (791)
53.9% (230)
Away
54.8% (810)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Hischier
Stamkos
P1
56.0%
56.7%
P2
58.6%
54.1%
P3
53.5%
59.2%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.0%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hischier
66.0%▲
58.0%
55.8%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 04:08 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |