Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hischier wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hischier 55.4% vs Hertl 57.4% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.7%
Defensive zone
Hischier 78.8%
Neutral zone
Hischier 54.4%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Hischier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Hischier
Hertl
Last 7: Hischier 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Hischier
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Hischier
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hischier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (1,172)
58.5% (845)
-3.0%
Power Play
64.5% (265)
56.2% (281)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (164)
62.9% (35)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hischier is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,026).
Hischier shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Hischier
Hertl
Home
56.8% (791)
60.0% (582)
Away
54.8% (810)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Hischier
Hertl
P1
56.0%
52.1%
P2
58.6%
63.6%
P3
53.5%
58.8%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hischier
66.0%▲
58.0%
55.8%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | OT | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2025 | OT | 02:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |