Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Sturm 59.0% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 79.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 80.7%
Neutral zone
McBain 80.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
McBain
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McBain
Sturm
Last 5: McBain 0-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
McBain
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
McBain
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
McBain
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
60.6% (708)
-14.3%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
61.1% (18)
-23.6%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
56.4% (101)
-18.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
McBain
Sturm
Home
50.6% (330)
61.6% (451)
Away
39.7% (320)
58.2% (376)
By Period
McBain
Sturm
P1
45.4%
55.9%
P2
44.5%
58.9%
P3
45.7%
64.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
45.2%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |