Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Greene 43.7% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 56.5%
Defensive zone
Greene 50.4%
Neutral zone
Greene 61.7%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Sturm
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Sturm
Greene
Last 5: Sturm 2-3 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
2
Sturm
Greene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Greene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
43.2% (530)
+13.9%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
46.8% (62)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
40.1% (167)
+10.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Greene is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Home / Away
Sturm
Greene
Home
57.1% (1,614)
47.4% (382)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
38.2% (377)
By Period
Sturm
Greene
P1
56.5%
46.1%
P2
54.9%
37.6%
P3
57.4%
45.2%
OT
60.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |