Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 17 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs McLeod 49.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 24-22 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 54.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Sturm
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
22
(46 meetings)
24
22
Sturm
McLeod
Last 10: Sturm 5-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
6
13
Sturm
McLeod
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
17
0
Sturm
McLeod
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
9
Sturm
McLeod
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
50.4% (3,376)
+6.7%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
50.7% (296)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
44.1% (644)
+6.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
Home / Away
Sturm
McLeod
Home
57.1% (1,614)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Sturm
McLeod
P1
56.5%
50.8%
P2
54.9%
48.0%
P3
57.4%
50.0%
OT
60.6%
37.1%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |