Nico Sturm vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 76.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
46.0% (250)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
31.8% (22)
+22.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
53.0% (168)
50.3% (175)
Away
56.0% (193)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
58.2%
48.5%
P2
53.2%
45.9%
P3
52.3%
46.5%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |