Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Helenius shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Helenius 46.6% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 54.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 65.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Sturm
Helenius
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Sturm
Helenius
Last 7: Sturm 4-3 Helenius
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Helenius
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Helenius
0
1
Sturm
Helenius
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Helenius
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Helenius
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
46.3% (488)
+10.8%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
0.0% (2)
+61.3%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
20.0% (5)
+31.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +61.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Helenius shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Helenius is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Sturm
Helenius
Home
57.1% (1,614)
44.5% (272)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
47.5% (223)
By Period
Sturm
Helenius
P1
56.5%
50.6%
P2
54.9%
40.1%
P3
57.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Helenius
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:09 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |