Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Kuraly 50.4% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 54.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 59.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 57.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Sturm
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Sturm
Kuraly
Last 8: Sturm 4-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Sturm
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
51.6% (5,161)
+5.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
56.4% (101)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
44.4% (1,091)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Sturm
Kuraly
Home
57.1% (1,614)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Sturm
Kuraly
P1
56.5%
51.2%
P2
54.9%
50.0%
P3
57.4%
50.2%
OT
60.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
56.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |