Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Hertl 54.5% (+1.0%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Sturm
Hertl
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
54.1% (1,117)
+2.0%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
59.8% (296)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
34.4% (32)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
55.6% (412)
54.3% (709)
Away
56.0% (468)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
59.6%
51.6%
P2
52.0%
53.6%
P3
55.5%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.8%