Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Trocheck 56.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Trocheck 84.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 57.5%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 59.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Sturm
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Sturm
Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
58.0% (666)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
43.4% (152)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Sturm
Trocheck
Home
53.0% (168)
55.3% (436)
Away
56.0% (193)
58.1% (547)
By Period
Sturm
Trocheck
P1
58.2%
56.4%
P2
53.2%
58.7%
P3
52.3%
55.5%
OT
100.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |